The choice of the two-day All Progressives Congress primary that starts today in the commercial capital, Lagos, may be less important than whether the group formed last year by the three main opposition parties can stay united to challenge Jonathan’s handling of an Islamist insurgency and falling oil prices.
“If the agreement to stick together regardless of the outcome of the primaries does not work, then of course we might not have a chance to see a strong opposition against Jonathan,” Emmanuel Remi Aiyede, a senior lecturer of political science at the University of Ibadan, said by phone.
Of the five candidates, the main fight in the APC is between 71-year-old ex-military dictator Muhammadu Buhari, who has lost three of the four presidential votes since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999, and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, 68. Both are northern Muslims, while Jonathan, 57, is a Christian from the Niger River delta, the heart of Africa’s biggest oil industry.
“Judging by historical precedent of party primaries in Nigeria, there is a high likelihood of a split emerging in the APC in the post-primaries period,” Manji Cheto, vice-president of corporate advisory company Teneo Intelligence, said in a Dec. 9 e-mailed note.
Public Disenchantment
With few ideological differences between the ruling People’s Democratic Party and the APC, the opposition is seeking to tap into public disenchantment with Jonathan’s government.Since he won elections in 2011, the security forces have failed to curb gun and bomb attacks by the Islamist militant group, Boko Haram, which kidnapped more than 200 schoolgirls from the northeastern town of Chibok in April. Falling prices for oil, which accounts for 70 percent of Nigeria’s state revenue, have forced the central bank to devalue the naira and are straining the government’s budget.
“What is clear now is that they are running against a president that is widely perceived as incompetent and incapable of moving the country forward,” Clement Nwankwo, executive director of the Policy and Legal Advocacy Centre, said by phone from Abuja, the capital. “At this time, it’s very difficult to see what any party -- opposition or ruling -- is promising Nigerians.”
Electoral Machine
The PDP’s proven ability to win elections and his incumbency count in Jonathan’s favor, according to Roddy Barclay, a London-based analyst at consultancy Control Risks Group. The PDP has won every election since the military relinquished power 15 years ago.“Jonathan still holds the advantages of incumbency and the backing of the PDP’s powerful electoral machine, which will be key factors in determining the vote’s outcome,” he said in an e-mailed response to questions.
Ranged against him are critics in the PDP who say his bid for re-election broke an unwritten party rule to rotate the presidency after two terms between Nigeria’s mainly Muslim north and predominantly Christian south. Jonathan succeeded Umaru Yar’Adua, a northern Muslim who died in office in 2010, before his election three years ago.
“His party has been weakened by his contested leadership, while his vote share will reduce markedly from 2011 after a crisis-afflicted term in office,” Barclay said.
Jonathan faced a fragmented opposition in 2011, winning the elections in the first round, with 59 percent of the ballots and more than the required 25 percent of the vote in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states.
To have a chance of dethroning the PDP, the APC must not fracture after the primaries, Habu Mohammed, professor of political science at Bayero University in northern Nigeria’s biggest city, Kano, said by phone.
“If they can agree to have a protest vote against the PDP, where is the PDP going to get a two-thirds majority?” he said.
Source: BloombergBusinessweek
